Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)
Update: 2024-09-02
Description
In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.
Full show notes can be found here: https://peterattiamd.com/annieduke/
Full show notes can be found here: https://peterattiamd.com/annieduke/
We discuss:
- Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Bill Belichick [1:00 ];
- Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:15 ];
- Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:00 ];
- Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15 ];
- The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [31:45 ];
- A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [40:30 ];
- The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:00 ];
- Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:15 ];
- Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [54:45 ];
- The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:04:15 ];
- The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:00 ];
- The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:15 ];
- Poker as a model system for life [1:31:00 ];
- How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:34:45 ];
- What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:00 ];
- The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00 ];
- The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:15 ];
- Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:51:45 ];
- The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30 ];
- Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:10:30 ];
- The benefits of “backcasting” (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:00 ];
- Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:00 ]; and
- More.
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